Curragh 13:15 — Value Analysis

Sunday 9 August 2026

Maiden GTF 6.0f Class 0 19 runners

Model's most likely NEW BOND STREET 20% model chance · market 20%

No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

Why the model rates NEW BOND STREET top (20% chance)

Twomey's yard strikes at 16% in the last two months, and 13% with debutants sharpens the appeal; fresh 18 days, form figures leave gaps to fill but the stable's recent strike rate carries weight.

✓ P Twomey's yard in form, 16% winners in the last two months
✓ P Twomey readies first-timers, 13% with debutants
✓ Ideally fresh - 18 days since its last run
✕ Mostly unraced field — ranking is based on stable/jockey strength, not form. Confidence is genuinely low here
✕ Form figures leave it plenty to find

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	NEW BOND STREET ★ Top Rated J: W J Lee · T: P Twomey 5.0 ·market 20%	20%	20%	5.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+2%
2	JEWEL IN A CROWD J: Luke McAteer · T: Ciaran Murphy 6.0 ·market 17%	17%	17%	6.0	+2%
3	SNOWING J: Ryan Moore · T: A P O'Brien 3.0 ·market 33%	16%	33%	3.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-53%
4	MY LUCKY JOURNEY J: Declan McDonogh · T: J A Stack 13.0 ·market 8%	11%	8%	13.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+47%
5	TRADEWINDS J: Paddy Harnett(5) · T: Donnacha Aidan O'Brien 10.0 ·market 10%	10%	10%	10.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+0%
6	ATLANTIC BRIDGE J: Donagh O'Connor · T: Robson De Aguiar 13.0 ·market 8%	9%	8%	13.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+18%
7	MARCO POLO J: Ronan Whelan · T: A P O'Brien 12.0 ·market 8%	6%	8%	12.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-28%
8	PUSH THE BOAT OUT J: Colin Keane · T: M D O'Callaghan 19.0 ·market 5%	5%	5%	19.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+4%
9	SANTERNO J: Dylan Browne McMonagle · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien 17.0 ·market 6%	5%	6%	17.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-13%
10	BENGAL TIGER J: Jack Cleary(5) · T: A P O'Brien 21.0 ·market 5%	5%	5%	21.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+5%
11	JOLTIN JOE J: Gavin Ryan · T: Noel Meade 51.0 ·market 2%	4%	2%	51.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+129%
12	KATTY J: David Egan · T: Adrian Sexton 26.0 ·market 4%	4%	4%	26.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+5%
13	BRAGEIRO J: Shane Foley · T: Ross O'Sullivan 51.0 ·market 2%	3%	2%	51.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+71%
14	NEW WORLD ORDER J: Oisin Murphy · T: J P Murtagh 12.0 ·market 8%	3%	8%	12.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-64%
15	NANDO THE GREAT J: Leigh Roche · T: Paul W Flynn 126.0 ·market 1%	3%	1%	126.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+247%
16	KING PADDY J: Gary Carroll · T: Paul W Flynn 41.0 ·market 2%	2%	2%	41.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+1%
17	A I NATION J: Jamie Powell · T: J P Murtagh 51.0 ·market 2%	2%	2%	51.0	+14%
18	MUTAMARID LSK J: J M Sheridan · T: Daniel James Murphy 201.0 ·market 0%	2%	0%	201.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+233%
19	LUCA BRILLANTE J: Chris Hayes · T: D K Weld 101.0 ·market 1%	1%	1%	101.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+39%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org