Curragh 13:45 — Value Analysis

Grand Hotel Malahide Irish EBF Fillies Juvenile Race

Sunday 9 August 2026

Unclassified GTF 7.0f Class 0 18 runners
Model's most likely ADMIRED BEAUTY 21% model chance · market 18%
★ Best value ADMIRED BEAUTY model 21% vs market 18% · +18%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: IBELIEVEICANFLY is the market favourite (2.4) but the model rates it only 13% vs the market's 42% — it may be beatable.

Why the model rates ADMIRED BEAUTY top (21% chance)

Among the race's best recent form figures and second last time out, Admired Beauty arrives fresh 21 days; McDonogh's recent 5% strike is the sole concern.

  • ✓ Among the best recent form figures in the race
  • ✓ Ideally fresh - 21 days since its last run
  • ✕ Declan McDonogh cold lately, 5% in the last two months
  • ✕ Little to like about its run last time

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
ADMIRED BEAUTY ★ Top Rated
J: Declan McDonogh · T: J S Bolger
5.5 ·market 18%
21%
18%
5.5
 +18%
2
SPECKLES
J: Jack Cleary(5) · T: A P O'Brien
7.0 ·market 14%
15%
14%
7.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +5%
3
IBELIEVEICANFLY
J: Ryan Moore · T: A P O'Brien
2.4 ·market 42%
13%
42%
2.4
 -69%
4
EXCEPTIONALLY
J: Ronan Whelan · T: A P O'Brien
12.0 ·market 8%
11%
8%
12.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +38%
5
GREEN SPARKLE
J: J M Sheridan · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien
23.0 ·market 4%
10%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +123%
—
SWORD OF STATE NR
J: Rory Cleary · T: Brendan W Duke
— ·market —
9%
—
—
 — Withdrawn
6
VOICE OF YOU
J: Gary Carroll · T: M C Hickey
15.0 ·market 7%
5%
7%
15.0
 -20%
7
SUOMENLINNA
J: Dylan Browne McMonagle · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien
6.5 ·market 15%
4%
15%
6.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -71%
—
ALPINE WEDDING NR
J: W J Lee · T: P Twomey
— ·market —
4%
—
—
 — Withdrawn
8
SIEGE OF TYRE
J: Leigh Roche · T: Kieran P Cotter
201.0 ·market 0%
3%
0%
201.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +601%market disagrees
9
DARLENE
J: Reese Holohan(7) · T: Robson De Aguiar
51.0 ·market 2%
3%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +74%
10
CHATTERING CLASSES
J: Shane Foley · T: Mrs John Harrington
29.0 ·market 3%
3%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -11%
11
KATIRAYA
J: Chris Hayes · T: D K Weld
41.0 ·market 2%
2%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -5%
—
BIG BESSY NR
J: Colin Keane · T: C W J Farrell
— ·market —
2%
—
—
 — Withdrawn
12
RATHBRAN LADY
J: Wesley Joyce(3) · T: Michael Mulvany
41.0 ·market 2%
2%
2%
41.0
 -15%
13
TORVELLA
J: Andrew Slattery · T: Andrew Slattery
41.0 ·market 2%
2%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -24%
14
MISS HONG KONG
J: Gavin Ryan · T: Donnacha Aidan O'Brien
15.0 ·market 7%
1%
7%
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -78%
15
POPPED
J: Nathan Crosse · T: Donnacha Aidan O'Brien
34.0 ·market 3%
1%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -54%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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