Downpatrick 13:58 — Value Analysis

WTW Willis Mares Maiden Hurdle

Sunday 9 August 2026

Maiden GD 18.0f Class 0 7 runners
Model's most likely SHODA 38% model chance · market 48%
★ Best value CLANOKRE LASS model 16% vs market 8% · +95%
Why the model rates SHODA top (38% chance)

Strong record against this class and preferred to Lilannbee on the ground, Shoda ran well over three runs back; handled the good before and rates the class leader.

  • ✓ Preferred to Lilannbee, better on the ground
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Handles the good well
  • ✕ Official mark among the lowest in the race

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
SHODA ★ Top Rated
J: J J Slevin · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien
2.1 ·market 48%
38%
48%
2.1
▲ Edge increasing
 -21%
2
LILANNBEE
J: Michael Kenneally(5) · T: S G Carey
2.5 ·market 40%
22%
40%
2.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -45%
3
CLANOKRE LASS
J: Sam Ewing · T: Gordon Elliott
12.0 ·market 8%
16%
8%
12.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +95%
4
SEARCOG
J: Eoin Walsh · T: Patrick Magee
9.0 ·market 11%
16%
11%
9.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +40%
5
SANTA PAULA
J: Patrick M O'Brien(5) · T: Dermot A McLoughlin
13.0 ·market 8%
11%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +42%
6
TUBBERFINN LASSIE
J: Eoghan Finegan(5) · T: John G Carr
67.0 ·market 1%
8%
1%
67.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +415%market disagrees
7
GREENROAD GIRL
J: Conor Stone-Walsh · T: R K Watson
101.0 ·market 1%
6%
1%
101.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +497%market disagrees

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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