Ayr 13:45 — Value Analysis

Ladbrokes 'Bet £5 Get £30 New Customer Offer' EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race)

Monday 10 August 2026

Maiden GD 6.0f Class 4 9 runners
🏁 Result: Next Of Kin won (SP 1.91)
Model's most likely NEXT OF KIN 41% model chance · market 56%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates NEXT OF KIN top (41% chance)

Preferred to Fly Smartly, Cieren Fallon is riding at 15% in the last two months and the yard strikes at 15% in the fortnight. Bang on trip at 6f, though form figures leave plenty to find.

  • ✓ Preferred to Fly Smartly, a proven winner at this class
  • ✓ Cieren Fallon riding well, 15% strike rate in the last two months
  • ✓ Bang on trip for it at 6f
  • ✕ Form figures leave it plenty to find
  • ✕ Little to like about its run last time

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
NEXT OF KIN ★ Top Rated
J: Cieren Fallon · T: William Haggas
1.8 ·market 56%
41%
56%
1.8
 -27% Winner
2
FLY SMARTLY
J: Donagh O'Connor · T: Robson De Aguiar
4.3 ·market 23%
15%
23%
4.3
▲ Edge increasing
 -33% 6th
3
DESERT SMOKE
J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Hugo Palmer
6.5 ·market 15%
11%
15%
6.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -30% 4th
4
LADY TITANIA
J: Sam James · T: K. R. Burke
34.0 ·market 3%
9%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +193% 7th
5
ASHINA
J: Daniel Tudhope · T: David O'Meara
10.0 ·market 10%
6%
10%
10.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -38% 3rd
—
DADAWADA NR
J: Tom Eaves · T: Christopher Kellett
151.0 ·market 1%
6%
1%
151.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +788%market disagrees Withdrawn
6
OH SO SLOW SLOTH
J: Kaiya Fraser · T: Rebecca Menzies
67.0 ·market 1%
5%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +227% 5th
7
LA FLOR GRANADA
J: Oisin Orr · T: Richard & Peter Fahey
41.0 ·market 2%
5%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +85% 8th
8
MYESME
J: Jason Hart · T: Edward Bethell
12.0 ·market 8%
4%
8%
12.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -52% 2nd

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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