Ayr 14:15 — Value Analysis

'Ladbrokes Get More With Racing Bet Builder' Classified Stakes

Monday 10 August 2026

Classified Stakes GD 8.0f Class 6 12 runners
🏁 Result: Hostelry won (SP 3.5)
Model's most likely SPIRIT OF NATURE 24% model chance · market 12%
⚡ Model standout SPIRIT OF NATURE model rates it 24% but the market has it an outsider (8.5) — a higher-risk each-way angle.
Why the model rates SPIRIT OF NATURE top (24% chance)

Drops into easier company from a stronger field where it has run well, 14 days since last run ideal for this type. Bang on trip at 1m, though the trainer is quiet at 8% in the last two months and winless in four recent starts.

  • ✓ Ran well three runs back
  • ✓ Ideally fresh - 14 days since its last run
  • ✓ Bang on trip for it at 1m
  • ✕ Jim Goldie's yard quiet lately, 8% in the last two months
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
SPIRIT OF NATURE ★ Top Rated
J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Jim Goldie
8.5 ·market 12%
24%
12%
8.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +106% 10th
2
MILLBUIE
J: William Pyle · T: Ewan Whillans
4.0 ·market 25%
19%
25%
4.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -23% 3rd
3
HOSTELRY
J: Joanna Mason · T: Ruth Carr
3.5 ·market 29%
13%
29%
3.5
 -55% Winner
4
BRIDGEFOOT RAMBLER
J: Conor Whiteley(5) · T: Stephen Hanlon
13.0 ·market 8%
12%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +53% 5th
5
CHARCON
J: Aiden Brookes · T: Ben Haslam
34.0 ·market 3%
11%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +260% 7th
6
GAME MANAGEMENT
J: David Nolan · T: Lizzie Quinlan
21.0 ·market 5%
8%
5%
21.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +67% 4th
7
CONCERT BOY
J: Sam James · T: Katie Scott
5.0 ·market 20%
7%
20%
5.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -64% 6th
8
HAWKSWORTH
J: Jason Hart · T: John & Sean Quinn
29.0 ·market 3%
5%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +52% 8th
—
ROYAL BARONESS NR
J: Shay Farmer(5) · T: R Mike Smith
17.0 ·market 6%
4%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -28% Withdrawn
9
RING OF GOLD
J: Billy Garritty · T: Michael & David Easterby
41.0 ·market 2%
4%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +59% 9th
—
SANNY DOO NR
J: Andrew Mullen · T: Jim Goldie
51.0 ·market 2%
3%
2%
51.0
 +78% Withdrawn
10
DUE RESPECT
J: Jake Dickson(5) · T: Gary Rutherford
13.0 ·market 8%
3%
8%
13.0
 -60% 2nd

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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