Kempton 14:30 — Value Analysis

Unibet/EBF Newcomers' "Confined" Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Bands C & D - Horses Have Never Run) (EBF Restricted Qualifier) (GBB Race)

Monday 10 August 2026

Maiden STSL 7.0f Class 4 12 runners
🏁 Result: Tikka won (SP 6.5)
Model's most likely GRETA TINTIN 13% model chance · market 10%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates GRETA TINTIN top (13% chance)

Unraced but trained by a yard with an 8% record among first-time-out runners. In a field of mostly untested runners, this ranking reflects stable strength rather than form—confidence is genuinely low here.

  • ✓ Unraced - yard wins 8% with its first-time-out runners
  • ✕ Mostly unraced field — ranking is based on stable/jockey strength, not form. Confidence is genuinely low here
  • ✕ No form to judge - genuine unknown

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
GRETA TINTIN ★ Top Rated
J: David Probert · T: Andrew Balding
10.0 ·market 10%
13%
10%
10.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +25% 9th
2
TIKKA
J: Daniel Muscutt · T: James Fanshawe
5.0 ·market 20%
10%
20%
5.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -49% Winner
3
HIDDEN BEYOND
J: Jason Watson · T: Charles Hills
4.5 ·market 22%
9%
22%
4.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -59% 3rd
4
NOUVA STELLA
J: George Wood · T: Harry Eustace
11.0 ·market 9%
8%
9%
11.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -11% 10th
5
ALIDOOLALLY
J: Saffie Osborne · T: David Menuisier
17.0 ·market 6%
7%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +16% 8th
6
BLUE VIXEN
J: Luke Catton(3) · T: Alan King
11.0 ·market 9%
6%
9%
11.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -30% 7th
7
LADY GLORIANA
J: Sean D Bowen · T: Ross Burdon
201.0 ·market 0%
6%
0%
201.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +1024%market disagrees 11th
8
RHYTHM OF MY HEART
J: Sean Levey · T: David Menuisier
6.0 ·market 17%
5%
17%
6.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -71% 2nd
9
APRILS LUCK
J: Luke Morris · T: Dylan Cunha
41.0 ·market 2%
4%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +78% 12th
10
BLANQUITA
J: Stevie Donohoe · T: Dylan Cunha
6.0 ·market 17%
4%
17%
6.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -77% 4th
11
ISABELLA OF ARAGON
J: Ben Ffrench Davis(5) · T: Dominic Ffrench Davis
19.0 ·market 5%
4%
5%
19.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -33% 5th
12
SINGING BLUES
J: Pierre-Louis Jamin · T: Tom Ward
23.0 ·market 4%
3%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -25% 6th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org