Lingfield 14:30 — Value Analysis

Smarter Gambling Starts At gambling.com Handicap Stakes

Tuesday 11 August 2026

Other Handicap STD 10.0f Class 6 14 runners
Model's most likely CRAZY PLAN 23% model chance · market 15%
★ Best value CRAZY PLAN model 23% vs market 15% · +49%
Why the model rates CRAZY PLAN top (23% chance)

Young improver with scope holds an 8lb edge over Shifra, has won over 1m2f, and gets Jason Watson riding at 15% in the last two months with the jockey-trainer pairing at 12%. Yet to be truly tested.

  • ✓ Preferred to Shifra, 8lb better in at the weights
  • ✓ Young improver with scope
  • ✓ Has won over 1m2f before
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
CRAZY PLAN ★ Top Rated
J: Jason Watson · T: Dan Horsford
6.5 ·market 15%
23%
15%
6.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +49%
2
SHIFRA
J: Seamus Cronin(5) · T: Pat Phelan
5.0 ·market 20%
16%
20%
5.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -20%
3
CHICO DULCE
J: Billy Loughnane · T: Michael Madgwick
4.3 ·market 23%
12%
23%
4.3
▼ Edge decreasing
 -50%
4
LITTLE TIGER
J: Edward Greatrex · T: William Stone
9.0 ·market 11%
10%
11%
9.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -10%
5
ROMAN SECRET
J: Finley Marsh · T: Lawrence Mullaney
12.0 ·market 8%
9%
8%
12.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +9%
6
WARRNAMBOOL
J: Luke Morris · T: Nick Littmoden
6.5 ·market 15%
8%
15%
6.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -45%
7
LADY AIYANA
J: Benoit de la Sayette · T: Mrs I G-Leveque
21.0 ·market 5%
7%
5%
21.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +51%
8
ARLECCHINOS REX
J: Cieren Fallon · T: Mark Usher
6.0 ·market 17%
6%
17%
6.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -62%
9
DUBAI HARBOUR
J: Paddy Bradley · T: Pat Phelan
11.0 ·market 9%
6%
9%
11.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -36%
—
LADY OF CHIVALRY NR
J: Callum Hutchinson · T: Patrick Chamings
26.0 ·market 4%
4%
4%
26.0
 +15% Withdrawn
—
MOONLIT CLOUD NR
J: Robert Havlin · T: Dean Ivory
— ·market —
4%
—
—
 — Withdrawn
10
STACEY RACEY
J: Josephine Gordon · T: Keiran Burke
34.0 ·market 3%
4%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +37%
11
SUMMER EVENING
J: Tyler Heard · T: David Flood
41.0 ·market 2%
3%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +26%
12
WARRIORS CHOICE
J: William Cox · T: Tom Dascombe
34.0 ·market 3%
3%
3%
34.0
 -2%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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