Carlisle 14:45 — Value Analysis
Cummersdale Apprentice Handicap Stakes
Tuesday 11 August 2026
Preferred to Hostility on the ground, has won over 1m, and racing at stronger company lately. Mark Walford's 6% first-timer record appeals, but poor last-time form and stepping beyond its recent level weigh against this runner.
- ✓ Preferred to Hostility, better on the ground
- ✓ Has won over 1m before
- ✓ Has been racing at a higher level than this lately
- ✕ Little to like about its run last time
- ✕ Stepping up beyond the level it has shown
Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Avg Price | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
BAY DREAM BELIEVER
★ Top Rated
6.5
·market 15%
|
28% |
15% |
6.5
▲ Edge increasing
|
+81% | |
| 2 |
HOSTILITY
5.0
·market 20%
|
22% |
20% |
5.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+11% | |
| 3 |
TEES GEORGE
3.8
·market 27%
|
21% |
27% |
3.8
▲ Edge increasing
|
-21% | |
| 4 |
IZZARI
5.5
·market 18%
|
10% |
18% |
5.5
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-44% | |
| 5 |
PERFIDIA
5.0
·market 20%
|
10% |
20% |
5.0
|
-51% | |
| 6 |
BALANCE OF TRADE
19.0
·market 5%
|
7% |
5% |
19.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+42% | |
| 7 |
JEWEL MAKER
9.5
·market 11%
|
7% |
11% |
9.5
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-33% | |
| 8 |
RAJAWAIL
81.0
·market 1%
|
6% |
1% |
81.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+351%market disagrees |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org