Lingfield 15:00 — Value Analysis

Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 British EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)

Tuesday 11 August 2026

Novice Stakes STD 5.0f Class 3 5 runners
Model's most likely DESERT SANDS 45% model chance · market 45%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates DESERT SANDS top (45% chance)

Young improver with scope holds 3lb over Ouragan, gets Benoit de la Sayette at 15% in the fortnight, and shows solid form over the last three runs. Fresh from 32 days, it has room to progress though form needs work.

  • ✓ Preferred to Ouragan, 3lb better in at the weights
  • ✓ Benoit de la Sayette riding well, 15% strike rate in the fortnight
  • ✓ Ran well over its last three runs
  • ✕ Official mark among the lowest in the race
  • ✕ Form figures leave it plenty to find

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
DESERT SANDS ★ Top Rated
J: Benoit de la Sayette · T: Ismail Mohammed & Jose Santos
2.2 ·market 45%
45%
45%
2.2
▲ Edge increasing
 -1%
2
OURAGAN
J: Luke Morris · T: Archie Watson
3.2 ·market 31%
27%
31%
3.2
 -11%
3
BELLATINA
J: Cieren Fallon · T: Charlie Johnston
6.0 ·market 17%
16%
17%
6.0
 -6%
4
CRIMSON BLAZE
J: Finley Marsh · T: Richard Hughes
12.0 ·market 8%
13%
8%
12.0
 +60%
5
BIRKACRE BROW
J: Billy Loughnane · T: James Tate
9.0 ·market 11%
9%
11%
9.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -20%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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