Beverley 14:15 — Value Analysis

Macan At Porsche Centre Hull EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)

Wednesday 12 August 2026

Novice Stakes GTF 5.0f Class 5 14 runners
Model's most likely TRUE CHARM 19% model chance · market 18%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates TRUE CHARM top (19% chance)
  • ✓ Preferred to Lexington Boom, better suited by the trip
  • ✓ Lemos De Souza's yard in form, 19% winners in the last two months
  • ✓ Ideally fresh - 33 days since its last run
  • ✕ Form figures leave it plenty to find
  • ✕ Little to like about its run over its last three runs

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
TRUE CHARM ★ Top Rated
J: Warren Fentiman(3) · T: Lemos De Souza
5.5 ·market 18%
19%
18%
5.5
 +5%
2
LEXINGTON BOOM
J: Oliver Stammers · T: Grant Tuer
4.5 ·market 22%
17%
22%
4.5
 -23%
3
ARD AS A ROCK
J: Joanna Mason · T: David Evans
3.5 ·market 29%
15%
29%
3.5
 -49%
4
SPECTACULAR DIVER
J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby
9.5 ·market 11%
11%
11%
9.5
 +6%
5
NEEDIN U
J: Billy Garritty · T: Michael & David Easterby
11.0 ·market 9%
8%
9%
11.0
 -13%
6
SCOTTYS ROCKET
J: Cam Hardie · T: Brian Ellison
67.0 ·market 1%
6%
1%
67.0
 +330%market disagrees
7
MUBEHIR
J: David Nolan · T: Paul Midgley
51.0 ·market 2%
5%
2%
51.0
 +156%
8
MUGHEER
J: Clifford Lee · T: K. R. Burke
3.0 ·market 33%
5%
33%
3.0
 -85%
9
CLASSY JAGUAR
J: Dougie Costello · T: Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood
151.0 ·market 1%
4%
1%
151.0
 +534%market disagrees
10
DESERT OUTLAW
J: Mark Winn · T: Paul Midgley
151.0 ·market 1%
3%
1%
151.0
 +411%market disagrees
11
UBETTABEQUEEN
J: Sean Kirrane · T: Tim Easterby
17.0 ·market 6%
3%
6%
17.0
 -45%
12
TAJ MAHAL PALACE
J: Ben Robinson · T: Brian Ellison
19.0 ·market 5%
3%
5%
19.0
 -52%
13
TIGGYWINKLE
J: Jason Hart · T: Ollie Pears
29.0 ·market 3%
2%
3%
29.0
 -30%
14
ONE MORE TILDA
J: Tom Eaves · T: Ivan Furtado
34.0 ·market 3%
2%
3%
34.0
 -22%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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