Gowran Park 14:22 — Value Analysis

Gowran Park Golf Optional Claiming Race

Wednesday 12 August 2026

Claiming Stakes GTF 8.0f Class 0 16 runners
Model's most likely CONTRITE 19% model chance · market 12%
★ Best value CONTRITE model 19% vs market 12% · +54%
Why the model rates CONTRITE top (19% chance)
  • ✓ Colin Keane riding well, 17% strike rate in the last two months
  • ✓ Ran well two runs back
  • ✓ D K Weld's yard in form, 14% winners in the last two months
  • ✕ Form figures leave it plenty to find
  • ✕ Trip is a question mark

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
CONTRITE ★ Top Rated
J: Colin Keane · T: D K Weld
8.0 ·market 12%
19%
12%
8.0
 +54%
2
LIBERATE
J: Chris Hayes · T: Denis Gerard Hogan
4.3 ·market 23%
16%
23%
4.3
 -29%
3
PASSAGE OF POWER
J: Dylan Browne McMonagle · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien
7.0 ·market 14%
15%
14%
7.0
 +5%
4
STAR OF BEAUTY
J: W J Lee · T: K J Condon
8.5 ·market 12%
13%
12%
8.5
 +11%
5
MYTHICAL ROCK
J: Sean Davis · T: C Byrnes
4.9 ·market 20%
11%
20%
4.9
 -48%
6
MINAUN VIEW
J: Patrick McGettigan(5) · T: Adrian McGuinness
10.0 ·market 10%
9%
10%
10.0
 -8%
7
JPS EXPRESS
J: Wesley Joyce(3) · T: Michael Mulvany
6.8 ·market 15%
8%
15%
6.8
 -45%
8
BUTTERMERE RIDGE
J: Robbie Colgan · T: Oliver McKiernan
15.0 ·market 7%
6%
7%
15.0
 -6%
9
BILL SILVERS
J: Jamie Orr(7) · T: William Durkan
11.0 ·market 9%
5%
9%
11.0
 -43%
10
HELLO STACIA
J: Luke McAteer · T: James Dowling
34.0 ·market 3%
4%
3%
34.0
 +44%
11
ZITKALA SA
J: Shane Foley · T: E Sheehy
23.0 ·market 4%
4%
4%
23.0
 -15%
12
LAND OF THE GIANTS
J: Ronan Whelan · T: Adrian McGuinness
19.0 ·market 5%
3%
5%
19.0
 -36%
13
IF NOT FOR GRACE
J: Leigh Roche · T: Liam P Cusack
101.0 ·market 1%
3%
1%
101.0
 +209%
14
COUNTERTOP
J: Terry Casey(7) · T: Michael Mulvany
67.0 ·market 1%
3%
1%
67.0
 +86%
15
MACINAMILLION
J: Mel Sheridan(7) · T: Raymond Hurley
34.0 ·market 3%
2%
3%
34.0
 -23%
16
MAY NIGHT
J: Keithen Kennedy(5) · T: Raymond Hurley
34.0 ·market 3%
2%
3%
34.0
 -35%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org