Salisbury 14:30 — Value Analysis
Michael Brunton Memorial British EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)
Wednesday 12 August 2026
- ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
- ✓ Ran well two runs back
- ✓ Callum Shepherd and Michael Bell win 18% together
- ✕ Unproven at this level
- ✕ Trip is a question mark
Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Avg Price | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
EASY ANSWER
★ Top Rated
3.8
·market 27%
|
45% |
27% |
3.8
|
+70% | |
| 2 |
ARCTIC TSAR
17.0
·market 6%
|
8% |
6% |
17.0
|
+34% | |
| 3 |
FIRST MATE
26.0
·market 4%
|
7% |
4% |
26.0
|
+72% | |
| 4 |
GOLD REEF CITY
11.0
·market 9%
|
6% |
9% |
11.0
|
-35% | |
| 5 |
FLICK OF AN EYE
3.8
·market 27%
|
5% |
27% |
3.8
|
-79% | |
| 6 |
FORBIDDEN FIRE
4.5
·market 22%
|
5% |
22% |
4.5
|
-78% | |
| 7 |
GOODWOOD METEOR
26.0
·market 4%
|
4% |
4% |
26.0
|
+14% | |
| 8 |
ONGOMBO
26.0
·market 4%
|
4% |
4% |
26.0
|
+9% | |
| 9 |
HACKPEN HILL
17.0
·market 6%
|
4% |
6% |
17.0
|
-29% | |
| 10 |
SATURN STAR
4.0
·market 25%
|
3% |
25% |
4.0
|
-87% |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org