Beverley 14:15 — Value Analysis

Racing TV Club Day EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Thursday 13 August 2026

Novice Stakes GTF 5.0f Class 4 6 runners
Model's most likely NOT MY TYPE 36% model chance · market 38%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: WHAT A GIRL WANTS is the market favourite (2.4) but the model rates it only 27% vs the market's 42% — it may be beatable.

Why the model rates NOT MY TYPE top (36% chance)

Fresh after 20 days and suited by 5f, holds a strong record at this class and retains scope as a young improver. Preferred to proven rivals, though an official mark among the lowest tempers the outlook.

  • ✓ Preferred to What A Girl Wants, a proven winner at this class
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Ideally fresh - 20 days since its last run
  • ✕ Mostly unraced field — ranking is based on stable/jockey strength, not form. Confidence is genuinely low here
  • ✕ Little to like about its run three runs back

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
NOT MY TYPE ★ Top Rated
J: Tom Marquand · T: William Haggas
2.6 ·market 38%
36%
38%
2.6
▲ Edge increasing
 -6%
2
WHAT A GIRL WANTS
J: Sam James · T: Kevin Philippart De Foy
2.4 ·market 42%
27%
42%
2.4
 -36%
3
EMPRESS PRINCESS
J: Clifford Lee · T: James Tate
5.0 ·market 20%
17%
20%
5.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -17%
4
CLASSYFIED
J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby
34.0 ·market 3%
14%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +385%market disagrees
5
QUEEN OF TEARS
J: Sean Kirrane · T: Tim Easterby
26.0 ·market 4%
13%
4%
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +236%
6
FLOWER YOUMZAIN
J: Tom Eaves · T: Kevin Ryan
17.0 ·market 6%
10%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +78%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org