Beverley 14:45 — Value Analysis

Welcome Racing TV Club Members Nursery Handicap Stakes

Thursday 13 August 2026

Nursery GTF 5.0f Class 6 10 runners
Model's most likely ENEMY ACTION 21% model chance · market 12%
★ Best value ENEMY ACTION model 21% vs market 12% · +78%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: CONCERT PITCH is the market favourite (1.7) but the model rates it only 16% vs the market's 58% — it may be beatable.

Why the model rates ENEMY ACTION top (21% chance)

Well treated on the handicap with strong record here, though stepping beyond what it has shown and unproven higher up. Winless in last four but fresh after 20 days; placed third two back at least offers some comfort.

  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Well treated on official ratings
  • ✕ Stepping up beyond the level it has shown
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
ENEMY ACTION ★ Top Rated
J: Harry Russell · T: Ollie Pears
8.5 ·market 12%
21%
12%
8.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +78%
2
KAIULANI SPIRIT
J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby
8.0 ·market 12%
20%
12%
8.0
 +59%
3
CONCERT PITCH
J: Ben Robinson · T: Brian Ellison
1.7 ·market 58%
16%
58%
1.7
▼ Edge decreasing
 -73%
4
MRS MOLE
J: Clifford Lee · T: Steph Hollinshead
13.0 ·market 8%
14%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +87%
5
TARGA
J: Luke Morris · T: Archie Watson
15.0 ·market 7%
13%
7%
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +92%
6
JOHNS POWER
J: Joanna Mason · T: Roger Fell
9.2 ·market 11%
9%
11%
9.2
▲ Edge increasing
 -16%
7
LAIRY MARY
J: Duran Fentiman · T: Tim Easterby
13.0 ·market 8%
8%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +6%
8
MARDY BUM
J: Mark Winn · T: David O'Meara
26.0 ·market 4%
6%
4%
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +63%
9
GOOD FIGHTER
J: Tom Kiely-Marshall(5) · T: Ismail Mohammed & Jose Santos
29.0 ·market 3%
5%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +44%
10
ARTICULATE
J: William Pyle · T: Kevin & Lauren Frost
67.0 ·market 1%
5%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +216%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org