Beverley 15:15 — Value Analysis

Hornsea Ladies At The Races Nursery Handicap Stakes

Thursday 13 August 2026

Nursery GTF 7.5f Class 6 11 runners
Model's most likely STATE OF GOLD 24% model chance · market 17%
★ Best value STATE OF GOLD model 24% vs market 17% · +37%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: ARIANE SKY is the market favourite (2.5) but the model rates it only 21% vs the market's 40% — it may be beatable.

Why the model rates STATE OF GOLD top (24% chance)
  • ✓ Preferred to Ariane Sky, better suited by the trip
  • ✓ Ran well three runs back
  • ✓ Has run well in better company than today's
  • ✕ Craig Lidster's yard quiet lately, 4% in the last two months
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
STATE OF GOLD ★ Top Rated
J: William Pyle · T: Craig Lidster
5.8 ·market 17%
24%
17%
5.8
 +37%
2
ARIANE SKY
J: Mason Paetel(5) · T: James Owen
2.5 ·market 40%
21%
40%
2.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -47%
3
SOVEREIGN BEACH
J: Sam James · T: Ollie Sangster
8.0 ·market 12%
16%
12%
8.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +25%
4
AMANTHA
J: Ben Robinson · T: Brian Ellison
9.0 ·market 11%
14%
11%
9.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +22%
5
COURT LEGEND
J: Billy Garritty · T: Michael & David Easterby
6.5 ·market 15%
12%
15%
6.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -22%
6
WELLS FARGO STAGE
J: Duran Fentiman · T: Tim Easterby
12.0 ·market 8%
10%
8%
12.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +25%
7
YORKSHIRE DREAM
J: Andrew Mullen · T: Ben Haslam
11.0 ·market 9%
6%
9%
11.0
 -38%
8
WHISPER ANGEL
J: Alex Jary(3) · T: Nigel Tinkler
51.0 ·market 2%
5%
2%
51.0
 +154%
9
FARNDALE
J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby
17.0 ·market 6%
4%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -24%
—
CLARET AND BLUES NR
J: Ethan Tindall(5) · T: Richard & Peter Fahey
— ·market —
4%
—
—
 — Withdrawn
10
BONJOUR BELLE
J: Faye McManoman · T: Brian Ellison
26.0 ·market 4%
4%
4%
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -5%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org