Epsom 14:48 — Value Analysis

Betfred 'Nifty 50' Nursery Handicap Stakes

Friday 14 August 2026

Nursery GTF 7.0f Class 5 5 runners
Model's most likely GREEK SYMPHONY 37% model chance · market 23%
★ Best value GREEK SYMPHONY model 37% vs market 23% · +61%
Why the model rates GREEK SYMPHONY top (37% chance)
  • ✓ Preferred to Wise And Wonderful, better proven at this class
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Ran well two runs back
  • ✕ Quick 5-day turnaround - a question mark
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
GREEK SYMPHONY ★ Top Rated
J: Ashley Lewis(3) · T: Oliver Cole
4.3 ·market 23%
37%
23%
4.3
▲ Edge increasing
 +61%
2
WISE AND WONDERFUL
J: David Probert · T: Andrew Balding
2.6 ·market 38%
35%
38%
2.6
 -7%
3
MINSTER BOY
J: Charles Bishop · T: Eve Johnson Houghton
4.5 ·market 22%
16%
22%
4.5
 -29%
4
BINCIMBAL
J: Hector Crouch · T: Harry Charlton
8.5 ·market 12%
9%
12%
8.5
 -22%
5
SEQUEL STAR
J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Ed Walker
6.5 ·market 15%
9%
15%
6.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -44%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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