Yarmouth 14:38 — Value Analysis

British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Friday 14 August 2026

Novice Stakes GTF 7.0f Class 3 7 runners
Model's most likely STORMY WINTER 34% model chance · market 14%
★ Best value STORMY WINTER model 34% vs market 14% · +138%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: ROCK MONTREAL is the market favourite (1.7) but the model rates it only 12% vs the market's 58% — it may be beatable.

Why the model rates STORMY WINTER top (34% chance)
  • ✓ Jack Mitchell riding well, 15% strike rate in the fortnight
  • ✓ Young improver with scope
  • ✓ Has run well in better company than today's
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry
  • ✕ Little to like about its run two runs back

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
STORMY WINTER ★ Top Rated
J: Jack Mitchell · T: Saeed bin Suroor
7.0 ·market 14%
34%
14%
7.0
 +138%
—
MAJESTIC JUDE NR
J: Cieren Fallon · T: William Haggas
— ·market —
22%
—
—
 — Withdrawn
2
ON TARGET
J: Darragh Keenan · T: George Scott
11.0 ·market 9%
15%
9%
11.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +65%
3
ROCK MONTREAL
J: Ray Dawson · T: Roger Varian
1.7 ·market 58%
12%
58%
1.7
 -79%
4
JUNIOR AGAIN
J: Jamie Spencer · T: George Boughey
4.5 ·market 22%
11%
22%
4.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -52%
5
DEL PEARO
J: Silvestre De Sousa · T: John Ryan
19.0 ·market 5%
8%
5%
19.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +58%
6
MINO
J: Benoit de la Sayette · T: Marco Botti
12.0 ·market 8%
7%
8%
12.0
 -15%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org