Yarmouth 14:03 — Value Analysis

Download The QuinnBet App "Confined" Novice Stakes (For Horses Which Have Run No More Than Twice) (GBB Race)

Friday 14 August 2026

Novice Stakes GTF 8.0f Class 4 2 runners
Model's most likely MATINS 66% model chance · market 99%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates MATINS top (66% chance)
  • ✓ Cieren Fallon riding well, 20% strike rate in the fortnight
  • ✓ Cieren Fallon and William Haggas win 26% together
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✕ Mostly unraced field — ranking is based on stable/jockey strength, not form. Confidence is genuinely low here
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
MATINS ★ Top Rated
J: Cieren Fallon · T: William Haggas
1.0 ·market 99%
66%
99%
1.0
 -34%
2
EMPEROR AURELIUS
J: Benoit de la Sayette · T: Mrs Ilka Gansera-Leveque
13.0 ·market 8%
32%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +320%market disagrees

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org