Dundalk 13:15 — Value Analysis

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden

Saturday 15 August 2026

Maiden STD 5.0f Class 0 14 runners
Model's most likely INSTITUTE 24% model chance · market 50%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates INSTITUTE top (24% chance)
  • ✓ Preferred to Grande Cuvee, better suited by the trip
  • ✓ Ran well over its last three runs
  • ✓ A P O'Brien's yard in form, 17% winners in the last two months
  • ✕ Form figures leave it plenty to find
  • ✕ Stepping up beyond the level it has shown

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
INSTITUTE ★ Top Rated
J: Wayne Lordan · T: A P O'Brien
2.0 ·market 50%
24%
50%
2.0
 -53%
2
GRANDE CUVEE
J: Seamie Heffernan · T: J A Stack
5.0 ·market 20%
19%
20%
5.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -5%
3
OSTERODE
J: Declan McDonogh · T: W McCreery
4.3 ·market 23%
15%
23%
4.3
▲ Edge increasing
 -35%
4
WHITE SMOKE
J: Dylan Browne McMonagle · T: M C Grassick
9.5 ·market 11%
12%
11%
9.5
 +18%
5
MCHENRY SUNRISE
J: Andrew Slattery · T: J A Stack
29.0 ·market 3%
10%
3%
29.0
 +201%
6
BEACH BARBIE
J: James Ryan · T: Edward Lynam
21.0 ·market 5%
9%
5%
21.0
 +99%
7
NEBROOK STAR
J: Diego Lima · T: Diego Dias
23.0 ·market 4%
8%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +95%
8
OPTICS
J: Nathan Crosse · T: Ms M McDowall
29.0 ·market 3%
5%
3%
29.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +53%
9
OFF WE GO
J: Ben Coen · T: A Oliver
126.0 ·market 1%
4%
1%
126.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +411%market disagrees
10
STRIKEPOINT
J: Gavin Ryan · T: John James Feane
51.0 ·market 2%
4%
2%
51.0
 +88%
—
FAMED AGAIN NR
J: Donagh O'Connor · T: Miss Hilary McLoughlin
51.0 ·market 2%
3%
2%
51.0
 +38% Withdrawn
11
EAGER LAD
J: Gary Carroll · T: A Oliver
10.0 ·market 10%
3%
10%
10.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -73%
—
TUDOR FLAME NR
J: Leigh Roche · T: John James Feane
34.0 ·market 3%
2%
3%
34.0
 -18% Withdrawn
12
FORBIDDEN
J: Ronan Whelan · T: Tracey Collins
151.0 ·market 1%
2%
1%
151.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +208%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org