Newbury 13:25 — Value Analysis

Highclere Thoroughbred Racing Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group 3)

Saturday 15 August 2026

Group 3 GTF 13.5f Class 1 6 runners
Model's most likely DUBAI HONOUR 25% model chance · market 33%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates DUBAI HONOUR top (25% chance)
  • ✓ Preferred to Wine Dark Sea, 18lb better in at the weights and better suited by the trip
  • ✓ Well treated on official ratings
  • ✓ Was well-in against its last field on ratings
  • ✕ Little to like about its run three runs back
  • ✕ First run for 126 days - fitness to prove

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
DUBAI HONOUR ★ Top Rated
J: Tom Marquand · T: William Haggas
3.0 ·market 33%
25%
33%
3.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -25%
2
WINE DARK SEA
J: Hector Crouch · T: Harry Charlton
11.0 ·market 9%
19%
9%
11.0
 +114%
3
TABLETALK
J: Saffie Osborne · T: Tom Clover
4.0 ·market 25%
16%
25%
4.0
 -35%
4
GAMRAI
J: William Buick · T: George Scott
6.5 ·market 15%
14%
15%
6.5
 -7%
5
REBEL ROCKER
J: Rob Hornby · T: Faye Bramley
11.0 ·market 9%
13%
9%
11.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +41%
6
MOUNT ATLAS
J: P J McDonald · T: Andrew Balding
5.0 ·market 20%
11%
20%
5.0
 -44%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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