Newmarket July 13:35 — Value Analysis

Betway Boosts EBF Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)

Saturday 15 August 2026

Novice Stakes GTF 8.0f Class 3 3 runners
Model's most likely BIN JAHWAR 44% model chance · market 71%
★ Best value AL QAYED model 19% vs market 12% · +54%
Why the model rates BIN JAHWAR top (44% chance)
  • ✓ Unraced - yard wins 34% with its first-time-out runners
  • ✕ Mostly unraced field — ranking is based on stable/jockey strength, not form. Confidence is genuinely low here
  • ✕ No form to judge - genuine unknown

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
BIN JAHWAR ★ Top Rated
J: Billy Loughnane · T: Charlie Appleby
1.4 ·market 71%
44%
71%
1.4
▼ Edge decreasing
 -39%
2
WAAQED
J: Robert Havlin · T: John & Thady Gosden
4.3 ·market 23%
25%
23%
4.3
▲ Edge increasing
 +9%
3
AL QAYED
J: Cieren Fallon · T: William Haggas
8.0 ·market 12%
19%
12%
8.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +54%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org