Southwell 13:30 — Value Analysis

Newark Advertiser Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)

Sunday 16 August 2026

Other Handicap STD 12.0f Class 4 12 runners
Model's most likely ASTROLOGICAL 29% model chance · market 36%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates ASTROLOGICAL top (29% chance)

Marco Botti's yard firing at 18 per cent, Astrological holds a strong record against these rivals and enjoys a nine-pound advantage in the weights, though remains unproven at the level.

  • ✓ Preferred to Typical Woman, 9lb better in at the weights
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Marco Botti's yard in form, 18% winners in the fortnight
  • ✕ Unproven at this level
  • ✕ Little to like about its run last time

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
ASTROLOGICAL ★ Top Rated
J: Marco Ghiani · T: Marco Botti
2.8 ·market 36%
29%
36%
2.8
 -19%
2
TYPICAL WOMAN
J: Billy Loughnane · T: Ian Williams
15.0 ·market 7%
15%
7%
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +126%
3
CLIFF DANGER
J: Kieran O'Neill · T: Pam Sly
5.0 ·market 20%
10%
20%
5.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -48%
4
WONDER
J: Taryn Langley(5) · T: James Fanshawe
5.5 ·market 18%
10%
18%
5.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -45%
5
YAA MIN
J: Jack Callan · T: Hayley Burton
7.0 ·market 14%
9%
14%
7.0
 -40%
6
DOMINATION
J: Sean D Bowen · T: Harriet Bethell
8.5 ·market 12%
7%
12%
8.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -41%
7
GALLANT LION
J: Jason Watson · T: Ian Williams
19.0 ·market 5%
6%
5%
19.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +19%
8
JINDRI
J: Hector Crouch · T: Jane Chapple-Hyam
9.0 ·market 11%
6%
11%
9.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -50%
9
MOTAZZEN
J: Laura Coughlan(3) · T: Henrietta C Knight
34.0 ·market 3%
5%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +66%
10
NAPLES
J: Dougie Costello · T: Steph Hollinshead
51.0 ·market 2%
4%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +125%
11
BONDI
J: Zak Wheatley · T: Declan Carroll
51.0 ·market 2%
4%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +83%
12
MEHMAS CHAMPION
J: David Nolan · T: David O'Meara
51.0 ·market 2%
3%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +57%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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