Curragh 13:35 — Value Analysis

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Nursery Handicap (Birdcatcher Series)

Sunday 16 August 2026

Nursery GD 6.0f Class 0 9 runners

Model's most likely BANKS OF THE BOYNE 35% model chance · market 23%

★ Best value BANKS OF THE BOYNE model 35% vs market 23% · +54%

Why the model rates BANKS OF THE BOYNE top (35% chance)

Michael Mulvany's yard struggles at nine per cent in the last two months, but Banks Of The Boyne holds strong form against these rivals and arrives fit on a 17-day turnaround, if still seeking a breakthrough win.

✓ Strong record against this class of rival
✕ Michael Mulvany's yard quiet lately, 9% in the last two months
✕ Unproven at this level

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	BANKS OF THE BOYNE ★ Top Rated J: Wesley Joyce(3) · T: Michael Mulvany 4.3 ·market 23%	35%	23%	4.3 ▲ Edge increasing	+54%
2	MR MONTAUK J: Declan McDonogh · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien 4.0 ·market 25%	18%	25%	4.0	-26%
3	SHESTHEDEVIL J: Jack Kearney(3) · T: Patrick Magee 7.0 ·market 14%	18%	14%	7.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+23%
4	I READY J: Dylan Browne McMonagle · T: Paul W Flynn 7.0 ·market 14%	13%	14%	7.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-11%
5	ALRASHDEYAH J: Oisin Murphy · T: Donnacha Aidan O'Brien 7.0 ·market 14%	9%	14%	7.0	-38%
—	AWAY AND GONE NR J: Gavin Ryan · T: Donnacha Aidan O'Brien 13.0 ·market 8%	7%	8%	13.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-4%	Withdrawn
6	CELESTIAL CROWN J: Ben Coen · T: J P Murtagh 12.0 ·market 8%	6%	8%	12.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-26%
7	HIGH MORALS J: Chris Hayes · T: William Durkan 12.0 ·market 8%	5%	8%	12.0	-34%
8	HOWLIN WOLF J: James Ryan · T: Jack W Davison 12.0 ·market 8%	4%	8%	12.0	-50%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org