Tramore 13:45 — Value Analysis

Tramore Directors Maiden Hurdle

Sunday 16 August 2026

Maiden GD 16.5f Class 0 10 runners
Model's most likely IVATT 24% model chance · market 23%
★ Best value CAPTAIN HANLEY model 16% vs market 9% · +80%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: SPEED FOR FUN is the market favourite (2.2) but the model rates it only 14% vs the market's 45% — it may be beatable.

Why the model rates IVATT top (24% chance)

Preferred to Captain Hanley on form at this class, Ivatt nonetheless steps into notably stronger company today and carries the scars of consistency issues, though Danny Gilligan's recent seven per cent does concern.

  • ✓ Preferred to Captain Hanley, better proven at this class
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry
  • ✕ Danny Gilligan cold lately, 7% in the last two months

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
IVATT ★ Top Rated
J: Danny Gilligan · T: Gordon Elliott
4.3 ·market 23%
24%
23%
4.3
 +3%
2
CAPTAIN HANLEY
J: Danny Mullins · T: Eamonn O'Connell
11.0 ·market 9%
16%
9%
11.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +80%
3
LOUIESCALL
J: Daniel King · T: David Harry Kelly
10.0 ·market 10%
15%
10%
10.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +49%
4
SPEED FOR FUN
J: Brian Hayes · T: W P Mullins
2.2 ·market 45%
14%
45%
2.2
▲ Edge increasing
 -69%
5
BALLYBOLLEN
J: Darragh O'Keeffe · T: Henry De Bromhead
5.0 ·market 20%
11%
20%
5.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -45%
6
BOBBY KIROVA
J: Paddy Cody(7) · T: Michael Butler
21.0 ·market 5%
10%
5%
21.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +103%
7
PENZANCE
J: Harry Sexton(7) · T: John Joseph Hanlon
10.0 ·market 10%
9%
10%
10.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -11%
8
CAIRO KING
J: Josh Younge(7) · T: Andrew Slattery
67.0 ·market 1%
4%
1%
67.0
 +178%
9
SANKOFA
J: John Shinnick · T: David Harry Kelly
67.0 ·market 1%
4%
1%
67.0
 +177%
10
GRABAT
J: Niall Moore(5) · T: Philip Fenton
51.0 ·market 2%
4%
2%
51.0
 +110%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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