Catterick 14:15 — Value Analysis

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Monday 17 August 2026

Amateur GD 12.0f Class 5 7 runners
Model's most likely STELLARMASTERPIECE 36% model chance · market 20%
★ Best value STELLARMASTERPIECE model 36% vs market 20% · +80%
Why the model rates STELLARMASTERPIECE top (36% chance)

Preferred to Austrian Theory and a proven winner at this level, she steps into notably easier company after running against stronger rivals and should be ideally fresh at 29 days between runs.

  • ✓ Preferred to Austrian Theory, a proven winner at this class
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Ran well two runs back

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
STELLARMASTERPIECE ★ Top Rated
J: Miss Becky Smith · T: Micky Hammond
5.0 ·market 20%
36%
20%
5.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +80%
2
AUSTRIAN THEORY
J: Mr Thomas Easterby(3) · T: Tim Easterby
3.5 ·market 29%
15%
29%
3.5
 -47%
3
MARINER
J: Mr Jamie Neild · T: Jennie Candlish
9.5 ·market 11%
14%
11%
9.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +33%
4
SUPER HIT
J: Mr Henry Callan · T: James Owen
4.3 ·market 23%
12%
23%
4.3
▼ Edge decreasing
 -46%
5
STAR START
J: Miss Charli Parker(5) · T: Ruth Carr
5.5 ·market 18%
9%
18%
5.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -50%
6
SPANISH HUSTLE
J: Miss Kayleigh Williams(5) · T: Jim Goldie
12.0 ·market 8%
9%
8%
12.0
 +4%
7
SHAHBAZ
J: Miss Brodie Hampson · T: Archie Watson
13.0 ·market 8%
6%
8%
13.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -27%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org