Lingfield 14:30 — Value Analysis

Free Bets On attheraces.com Nursery Handicap Stakes

Monday 17 August 2026

Nursery STD 8.0f Class 5 6 runners
Model's most likely PARADING 30% model chance · market 22%
★ Best value POPPY FOXY model 28% vs market 20% · +39%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: PEQUENITA is the market favourite (2.5) but the model rates it only 18% vs the market's 41% — it may be beatable.

Why the model rates PARADING top (30% chance)

Preferred to Poppy Foxy, a proven winner better suited by today's trip, Parading finds stronger company but boasts prior experience at this level and arrives fresh off 20 days.

  • ✓ Preferred to Poppy Foxy, a proven winner at this class and better suited by the trip
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry
  • ✕ Little to like about its run three runs back

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
PARADING ★ Top Rated
J: Pat Dobbs · T: Richard Hughes
4.5 ·market 22%
30%
22%
4.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +33%
2
POPPY FOXY
J: Saffie Osborne · T: Charlie Clover
5.0 ·market 20%
28%
20%
5.0
 +39%
3
PEQUENITA
J: Oisin Murphy · T: Andrew Balding
2.5 ·market 41%
18%
41%
2.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -55%
4
LITTLE MESTER
J: Jack Doughty · T: Stuart Williams
15.0 ·market 7%
11%
7%
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +69%
5
MAGICAL LIFE
J: William Cox · T: J S Moore
4.5 ·market 22%
10%
22%
4.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -53%
—
CRAZY CUBANA NR
J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Ed Walker
— ·market —
8%
—
—
 — Withdrawn

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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