Catterick 14:45 — Value Analysis

Well-Earned Retirement Neal Kidd Nursery Handicap Stakes

Monday 17 August 2026

Nursery GD 6.0f Class 6 8 runners
Model's most likely SOLDIERS ECHO 28% model chance · market 12%
★ Best value SOLDIERS ECHO model 28% vs market 12% · +142%
Why the model rates SOLDIERS ECHO top (28% chance)
  • ✓ Hugo Palmer readies first-timers, 13% with debutants
  • ✓ Shane Gray riding well, 16% strike rate in the last two months
  • ✓ Record at this level stands out
  • ✕ Form figures leave it plenty to find
  • ✕ Little to like about its run two runs back

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
SOLDIERS ECHO ★ Top Rated
J: Shane Gray · T: Hugo Palmer
8.5 ·market 12%
28%
12%
8.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +142%
2
AURA OF MELANIA
J: Oisin McSweeney · T: Roger Fell
5.0 ·market 20%
15%
20%
5.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -24%
3
SO TEMPTING
J: P J McDonald · T: Tom Ward
4.0 ·market 25%
15%
25%
4.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -42%
4
HARRYS POP
J: Sam James · T: Dylan Cunha
4.3 ·market 23%
12%
23%
4.3
▼ Edge decreasing
 -48%
5
CHEEKY CHESCA
J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby
11.0 ·market 9%
9%
9%
11.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +4%
6
EEVEE STAR
J: Oisin Orr · T: Edward Bethell
10.0 ·market 10%
9%
10%
10.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -10%
7
ATHOS
J: Joanna Mason · T: John Butler
10.0 ·market 10%
7%
10%
10.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -33%
8
INVICTA ROSE
J: Billy Garritty · T: Ollie Sangster
13.0 ·market 8%
5%
8%
13.0
 -31%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org