Chepstow 14:15 — Value Analysis

Community Engagement Programme Handicap Stakes

Tuesday 18 August 2026

Other Handicap GTF 12.0f Class 6 2 runners
Model's most likely HOPE RISING 69% model chance · market 89%
★ Best value SNEAKY BLINDER model 25% vs market 17% · +53%
Why the model rates HOPE RISING top (69% chance)
  • ✓ Ran well last time, finished 1st
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Jamie Snowden sharp with handicappers, 17% recently

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
HOPE RISING ★ Top Rated
J: Rob Hornby · T: Jamie Snowden
1.1 ·market 89%
69%
89%
1.1
 -23%
2
SNEAKY BLINDER
J: Billy Loughnane · T: Robert Stephens
6.0 ·market 17%
25%
17%
6.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +53%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org