Lingfield 14:30 — Value Analysis

Follow @AtTheRaces On Instagram Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Stakes

Tuesday 18 August 2026

Amateur STD 16.0f Class 5 8 runners
Model's most likely ROLAND GARROS 28% model chance · market 13%
★ Best value ROLAND GARROS model 28% vs market 13% · +113%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: CIRCUIT BREAKER is the market favourite (2.5) but the model rates it only 15% vs the market's 40% — it may be beatable.

Why the model rates ROLAND GARROS top (28% chance)

Roland Garros owns the form credentials, with Mr Fletcher Yarham's 14% strike rate in the last two months and a race-ready outing just six days back, though today's level remains unproven.

  • ✓ Preferred to Circuit Breaker, a proven winner at this class
  • ✓ Mr Fletcher Yarham riding well, 14% strike rate in the last two months
  • ✓ Ran well two runs back
  • ✕ Unproven at this level
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
ROLAND GARROS ★ Top Rated
J: Mr Fletcher Yarham · T: Hayley Burton
7.5 ·market 13%
28%
13%
7.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +113%
2
CIRCUIT BREAKER
J: Mr Simon Walker · T: Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill
2.5 ·market 40%
15%
40%
2.5
 -61%
3
DIAMOND BAY
J: Mr Henry Callan · T: Tom Ward
3.8 ·market 27%
14%
27%
3.8
 -46%
4
BEAUNE
J: Miss Jessica Llewellyn(5) · T: Bernard Llewellyn
10.5 ·market 10%
10%
10%
10.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +9%
5
FLAMINGO ROSE
J: Mr Morgan Tidman(7) · T: Michael Wigham
17.0 ·market 6%
10%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +66%
6
FURTHER MEASURE
J: Mrs Charlotte Owen(7) · T: Mike Murphy
9.0 ·market 11%
9%
11%
9.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -23%
7
BENVOY
J: Miss Brodie Hampson · T: Jo Davis
12.0 ·market 8%
6%
8%
12.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -30%
8
WISE COUNSELLOR
J: Mr Hezekiah March(7) · T: Gary & Josh Moore
26.0 ·market 4%
5%
4%
26.0
 +40%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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