Chepstow 14:45 — Value Analysis

Trade Centre Group Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race)

Tuesday 18 August 2026

Maiden GTF 5.0f Class 4 8 runners
Model's most likely DELIGHFULLY HOT 40% model chance · market 33%
★ Best value DELIGHFULLY HOT model 40% vs market 33% · +19%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: SOEUR DE FLASH is the market favourite (2.5) but the model rates it only 14% vs the market's 40% — it may be beatable.

Why the model rates DELIGHFULLY HOT top (40% chance)

Delightfully Hot and James Owen boast a thirty-six per cent strike rate together, with Billy Loughnane firing at twenty-three per cent in the last two months and the trip bang on, though recent form gives pause.

  • ✓ Billy Loughnane and James Owen win 36% together
  • ✓ Billy Loughnane riding well, 23% strike rate in the last two months
  • ✓ Bang on trip for it at 5f
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry
  • ✕ Little to like about its run last time

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
DELIGHFULLY HOT ★ Top Rated
J: Billy Loughnane · T: James Owen
3.0 ·market 33%
40%
33%
3.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +19%
2
SOEUR DE FLASH
J: Rossa Ryan · T: Clive Cox
2.5 ·market 40%
14%
40%
2.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -66%
3
ROGUE DAKOTA
J: Harry Davies · T: Archie Watson
7.5 ·market 13%
13%
13%
7.5
 +1%
4
SIOUX MOON
J: Tom Marquand · T: Charlie Fellowes
9.0 ·market 11%
10%
11%
9.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -7%
5
KOKUMI
J: Gina Mangan · T: Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole
13.0 ·market 8%
7%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -7%
6
IMPULSIVE SPIRIT
J: Rob Hornby · T: David Evans
13.0 ·market 8%
7%
8%
13.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -14%
7
MARZAD
J: Lewis Edmunds · T: Rod Millman
81.0 ·market 1%
6%
1%
81.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +377%market disagrees
8
HAPPY ENOUGH
J: Edward Greatrex · T: Ralph Beckett
23.0 ·market 4%
4%
4%
23.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +3%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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