York 13:50 — Value Analysis

Hong Kong Jockey Club World Pool Handicap Stakes (Heritage Handicap)

Wednesday 19 August 2026

Other Handicap GD 5.5f Class 2 22 runners
Model's most likely AIR FORCE ONE 15% model chance · market 12%
★ Best value AIR FORCE ONE model 15% vs market 12% · +29%
Why the model rates AIR FORCE ONE top (15% chance)

Tops the ratings on recent form and benefits from Geoff Oldroyd's proven touch with fresh runners; steps into stronger company, yet his record at this level offers encouragement.

  • ✓ Among the best recent form figures in the race
  • ✓ Geoff Oldroyd readies first-timers, 10% with debutants
  • ✓ Ideally fresh - 25 days since its last run
  • ✕ Little to like about its run over its last three runs
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
AIR FORCE ONE ★ Top Rated
J: P J McDonald · T: Geoff Oldroyd
8.5 ·market 12%
15%
12%
8.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 +29%
2
LEXINGTON BLITZ
J: Edward Greatrex · T: Robert Cowell
8.8 ·market 11%
14%
11%
8.8
 +24%
3
THE MAN
J: David Egan · T: Richard Spencer
6.5 ·market 15%
13%
15%
6.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -16%
4
TOCA MADERA
J: Daniel Tudhope · T: David O'Meara
6.0 ·market 17%
12%
17%
6.0
 -26%
5
CANDY
J: George Wood · T: Richard Spencer
21.0 ·market 5%
8%
5%
21.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +70%
6
COROLLA POINT
J: Callum Rodriguez · T: Edward Bethell
6.0 ·market 17%
8%
17%
6.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -54%
7
NAANAS SPARKLE
J: Kieran O'Neill · T: Lemos De Souza
12.0 ·market 8%
7%
8%
12.0
 -21%
8
STRATUSNINE
J: James Doyle · T: Hugo Palmer
10.0 ·market 10%
6%
10%
10.0
 -37%
9
GOLD STAR HERO
J: Hector Crouch · T: Michael Bell
23.0 ·market 4%
5%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +11%
10
AGAINST THE WIND
J: Kevin Stott · T: Kevin Ryan
67.0 ·market 1%
4%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +155%
11
APOLLO ONE
J: Colin Keane · T: P Charalambous & J Clutterbuck
19.0 ·market 5%
4%
5%
19.0
 -32%
12
DARK THIRTY
J: Jason Hart · T: John & Sean Quinn
21.0 ·market 5%
3%
5%
21.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -35%
13
DAPPER VALLEY
J: Tom Marquand · T: Michael Keady
29.0 ·market 3%
3%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -16%
14
DUBAI BLING
J: Oisin Murphy · T: Hugo Palmer
23.0 ·market 4%
3%
4%
23.0
 -34%
15
EROSANDPSYCHE
J: Oisin Orr · T: D J Murphy
51.0 ·market 2%
2%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +22%
16
SPARTAN ARROW
J: Luke Morris · T: Archie Watson
41.0 ·market 2%
2%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -3%
17
STORMY IMPACT
J: Warren Fentiman(3) · T: Richard & Peter Fahey
31.0 ·market 3%
2%
3%
31.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -33%
18
TOYOTOMI
J: Rossa Ryan · T: David O'Meara
41.0 ·market 2%
2%
2%
41.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -22%
19
TREFOR
J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Charles Hills
26.0 ·market 4%
2%
4%
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -52%
20
WEST ACRE
J: Darragh Keenan · T: George Scott
41.0 ·market 2%
1%
2%
41.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -40%
21
ZIGGYS TRITON
J: Silvestre De Sousa · T: David O'Meara
41.0 ·market 2%
1%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -41%
22
ANOTHER BAAR
J: M. P. Sheehy · T: Adrian Keatley
67.0 ·market 1%
1%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -34%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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