Carlisle 14:05 — Value Analysis

Nxt Big Thing Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Wednesday 19 August 2026

Novice Stakes GD 6.0f Class 4 7 runners
Model's most likely DIAMOND NEW BAY 42% model chance · market 29%
★ Best value DIAMOND NEW BAY model 42% vs market 29% · +47%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: GUADALEVIN is the market favourite (1.8) but the model rates it only 40% vs the market's 56% — it may be beatable.

Why the model rates DIAMOND NEW BAY top (42% chance)

Preferred to Guadalevin and backed by the proven partnership of Sam James and trainer K. R. Burke, the combination's 36% record offers real encouragement; young with scope for improvement and fresh off 26 days.

  • ✓ Preferred to Guadalevin, a proven winner at this class
  • ✓ Sam James riding well, 14% strike rate in the fortnight
  • ✓ Sam James and K. R. Burke win 36% together
  • ✕ Little to like about its run three runs back
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
DIAMOND NEW BAY ★ Top Rated
J: Sam James · T: K. R. Burke
3.5 ·market 29%
42%
29%
3.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +47%
2
GUADALEVIN
J: Paddy Bradley · T: Charlie Fellowes
1.8 ·market 56%
40%
56%
1.8
▼ Edge decreasing
 -28%
3
OH SO SLOW SLOTH
J: David Allan · T: Rebecca Menzies
29.0 ·market 3%
9%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +159%
4
MA BLUSHIN ROSIE
J: Barry McHugh · T: Adrian Keatley
12.0 ·market 8%
9%
8%
12.0
 +4%
5
SAYIDAH BAHRA
J: Tom Eaves · T: Kevin Ryan
13.0 ·market 8%
7%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -8%
6
SARAS SILVER GIRL
J: Billy Garritty · T: Michael & David Easterby
21.0 ·market 5%
6%
5%
21.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +25%
7
ANGELIC MELODY
J: Ryan Sexton · T: Julie Camacho
23.0 ·market 4%
6%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +36%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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