York 14:25 — Value Analysis

Tattersalls Acomb Stakes (Group 3)

Wednesday 19 August 2026

Group 3 GD 7.0f Class 1 11 runners
Model's most likely FUEL THE JET 17% model chance · market 5%
⚡ Model standout FUEL THE JET model rates it 17% but the market has it an outsider (19.0) — a higher-risk each-way angle.

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: HAFFNER is the market favourite (2.4) but the model rates it only 14% vs the market's 42% — it may be beatable.

Why the model rates FUEL THE JET top (17% chance)
  • ✓ Preferred to Haffner, better proven at this class
  • ✓ Tom Clover's yard in form, 16% winners in the fortnight
  • ✓ Neil Callan riding well, 15% strike rate in the fortnight
  • ✕ The good is a question mark for it
  • ✕ Little to like about its run over its last three runs

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
FUEL THE JET ★ Top Rated
J: Neil Callan · T: Tom Clover
19.0 ·market 5%
17%
5%
19.0
 +220%
2
HAFFNER
J: Ryan Moore · T: A P O'Brien
2.4 ·market 42%
14%
42%
2.4
▼ Edge decreasing
 -67%
3
GENTLE HURRICANE
J: Oisin Murphy · T: Andrew Balding
6.8 ·market 15%
12%
15%
6.8
▲ Edge increasing
 -22%
4
CONFUCIUS
J: Wayne Lordan · T: A P O'Brien
13.0 ·market 8%
10%
8%
13.0
 +33%
5
ALFRED WALLACE
J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Ed Walker
8.5 ·market 12%
9%
12%
8.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -23%
6
BIG CIGAR
J: Oisin Orr · T: Richard & Peter Fahey
51.0 ·market 2%
8%
2%
51.0
 +322%market disagrees
7
SIOUXPERB
J: Hector Crouch · T: Archie Watson
67.0 ·market 1%
7%
1%
67.0
 +347%market disagrees
8
TREAN
J: W J Lee · T: P Twomey
6.0 ·market 17%
6%
17%
6.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -66%
9
VEGA KING
J: Clifford Lee · T: K. R. Burke
23.0 ·market 4%
5%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +17%
10
CLASH OF HEARTS
J: M. P. Sheehy · T: Adrian Keatley
101.0 ·market 1%
5%
1%
101.0
 +355%market disagrees
11
STARDOM GLORY
J: James Doyle · T: Hugo Palmer
13.0 ·market 8%
3%
8%
13.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -56%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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