Lingfield 14:10 — Value Analysis

Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Ebf Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (for Horses In Bands C And D) (Ebf Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)

Thursday 20 August 2026

Novice Stakes STD 5.0f Class 5 9 runners
Model's most likely INGLEWOOD 32% model chance · market 60%
★ Best value BIRKACRE BROW model 24% vs market 22% · +6%
Why the model rates INGLEWOOD top (32% chance)

Preferred to Birkacre Brow at the weights and better proven at this class level, Inglewood suits the 5f trip perfectly and arrives race-fit from just 13 days ago, though form figures leave plenty to find.

  • ✓ Preferred to Birkacre Brow, 5lb better in at the weights and better proven at this class
  • ✓ Bang on trip for it at 5f
  • ✓ Has been racing at a higher level than this lately
  • ✕ Official mark among the lowest in the race
  • ✕ Form figures leave it plenty to find

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
INGLEWOOD ★ Top Rated
J: Charles Bishop · T: Julie Camacho
1.7 ·market 60%
32%
60%
1.7
 -47%
2
BIRKACRE BROW
J: David Probert · T: James Tate
4.5 ·market 22%
24%
22%
4.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +6%
3
BLACK TREASURE
J: Dougie Costello · T: Ollie Sangster
12.0 ·market 8%
10%
8%
12.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +19%
4
ADELAIDES TURN
J: Rhys Clutterbuck · T: Robert Cowell
15.0 ·market 7%
7%
7%
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +9%
5
GLAMOROUS WILD
J: Paddy Bradley · T: Mark Loughnane
29.0 ·market 3%
7%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +97%
6
LAST DANDELION
J: Ryan Kavanagh(3) · T: Stuart Williams
6.5 ·market 15%
7%
15%
6.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -57%
7
SACRED RHYTHM
J: Jason Watson · T: Joseph Parr
17.0 ·market 6%
6%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -6%
8
FANCIED ANGEL
J: Pat Cosgrave · T: Adam Kirby
34.0 ·market 3%
5%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +60%
9
LEADING RAYA
J: Alicia Perkins(7) · T: Mark Usher
151.0 ·market 1%
4%
1%
151.0
 +562%market disagrees

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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