Newmarket July 14:00 — Value Analysis
Ebf Fillies' Novice Stakes (gbb Race)
Thursday 20 August 2026
Preferred to Grey Tamam and better proven at this class level, Minkaas ran well for third last time out, and T J Kent's yard is in form at 17% in the last two months, though form figures still leave plenty to find.
- ✓ Preferred to Grey Tamam, better proven at this class
- ✓ Ran well last time, finished 3rd
- ✓ T J Kent's yard in form, 17% winners in the last two months
- ✕ Jamie Spencer cold lately, 6% in the fortnight
- ✕ Form figures leave it plenty to find
Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Avg Price | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
MINKAAS
★ Top Rated
1.9
·market 53%
|
54% |
53% |
1.9
▼ Edge decreasing
|
+1% | |
| — |
GREY TAMAM
NR
5.0
·market 20%
|
17% |
20% |
5.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
-14% | Withdrawn |
| 2 |
ELPEEARE
4.5
·market 22%
|
13% |
22% |
4.5
|
-41% | |
| 3 |
SCOOT AWAY
17.0
·market 6%
|
11% |
6% |
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+89% | |
| 4 |
PLASTIC DREAM
24.5
·market 4%
|
8% |
4% |
24.5
|
+108% | |
| 5 |
ZEPHYRA
4.0
·market 25%
|
8% |
25% |
4.0
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-67% |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →
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