York 13:50 — Value Analysis

Sky Bet Lowther Stakes (Group 2)

Thursday 20 August 2026

Group 2 GD 6.0f Class 1 19 runners
Model's most likely STAR OF STATE 15% model chance · market 29%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates STAR OF STATE top (15% chance)
  • ✓ Ideally fresh - 35 days since its last run
  • ✓ Dylan Browne McMonagle riding well, 18% strike rate in the last two months
  • ✓ Dylan Browne McMonagle and Joseph Patrick O'Brien win 14% together
  • ✕ Unproven at this level
  • ✕ Little to like about its run three runs back

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
STAR OF STATE ★ Top Rated
J: Dylan Browne McMonagle · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien
3.5 ·market 29%
15%
29%
3.5
 -49%
2
RUBY MOON
J: Oisin Orr · T: Richard & Peter Fahey
13.0 ·market 8%
11%
8%
13.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +41%
3
LIBERTANGO
J: Billy Loughnane · T: George Boughey
3.8 ·market 27%
8%
27%
3.8
 -68%
4
WILD BLOSSOM
J: James Doyle · T: K. R. Burke
6.5 ·market 15%
7%
15%
6.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -52%
5
LIVENKA
J: Colin Keane · T: G M Lyons
9.2 ·market 11%
7%
11%
9.2
▲ Edge increasing
 -39%
6
BINT ARCHANGE
J: Ryan Moore · T: Richard Hughes
67.0 ·market 1%
6%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +303%market disagrees
7
MISS KODI
J: Rossa Ryan · T: Clive Cox
17.0 ·market 6%
5%
6%
17.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -8%
8
ANGELS PASSING
J: Kevin Stott · T: Kevin Ryan
67.0 ·market 1%
5%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +231%
9
DESERT SANDS
J: Silvestre De Sousa · T: Ismail Mohammed & Jose Santos
201.0 ·market 0%
4%
0%
201.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +777%market disagrees
10
JOLIVETTE
J: William Buick · T: Andrew Balding
34.0 ·market 3%
4%
3%
34.0
 +36%
—
MOONRISE NR
J: Oisin Murphy · T: Andrew Balding
13.0 ·market 8%
4%
8%
13.0
 -53% Withdrawn
11
SEXY CHICK
J: George Wood · T: Richard Spencer
126.0 ·market 1%
3%
1%
126.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +279%
12
SHIMMERING SUN
J: Tom Marquand · T: Harry Eustace
17.0 ·market 6%
3%
6%
17.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -57%
13
IN THE BLACK
J: P J McDonald · T: Geoff Oldroyd
29.0 ·market 3%
2%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -35%
14
ALTA REGINA
J: Callum Rodriguez · T: Hamad Al Jehani
48.0 ·market 2%
2%
2%
48.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -3%
15
CROWNBREAKER
J: David Egan · T: Kevin Philippart De Foy
20.0 ·market 5%
2%
5%
20.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -64%
16
LOVE A GIGGLE
J: Clifford Lee · T: K. R. Burke
64.0 ·market 2%
2%
2%
64.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +1%
17
CRYSTAL QUEEN
J: Connor Beasley · T: Richard & Peter Fahey
67.0 ·market 1%
1%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -4%
18
BIG NEGOTIATOR
J: W J Lee · T: P Twomey
41.0 ·market 2%
1%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -48%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

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