Ffos Las 14:10 — Value Analysis

Ascona Ladies Fuelled By Fashion Handicap Stakes

Friday 21 August 2026

Other Handicap GD 6.0f Class 5 6 runners
Model's most likely SAFARI DREAM 31% model chance · market 22%
★ Best value SAFARI DREAM model 31% vs market 22% · +38%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: SIXTYGEESBABY is the market favourite (2.0) but the model rates it only 23% vs the market's 50% — it may be beatable.

Why the model rates SAFARI DREAM top (31% chance)
  • ✓ Preferred to Sixtygeesbaby, 5lb better in at the weights and better on the ground
  • ✓ Ran well two runs back
  • ✓ Proven over this exact course and distance
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry
  • ✕ Trip is a question mark

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
SAFARI DREAM ★ Top Rated
J: Finley Marsh · T: Rod Millman
4.5 ·market 22%
31%
22%
4.5
 +38%
2
SIXTYGEESBABY
J: Luke Morris · T: David O'Meara
2.0 ·market 50%
23%
50%
2.0
 -55%
3
LIOSA
J: Oliver Carmichael(7) · T: Zoe Hawkins
4.5 ·market 22%
17%
22%
4.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -23%
4
ALKUWARRIOR
J: Gina Mangan · T: Christopher Mason
17.0 ·market 6%
15%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +147%
5
ARMY BUGLER
J: Harry Vigors(5) · T: Warren Greatrex
29.0 ·market 3%
10%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +180%
6
PULL THE RUG
J: Robbie Downey · T: Grace Harris
8.0 ·market 12%
9%
12%
8.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -26%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org