Newmarket July 14:00 — Value Analysis

Racing Welfare Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Friday 21 August 2026

Novice Stakes GTF 7.0f Class 3 7 runners
Model's most likely BEGUILED 42% model chance · market 65%
★ Best value JESSICA model 22% vs market 17% · +29%
Why the model rates BEGUILED top (42% chance)
  • ✓ John & Thady Gosden readies first-timers, 25% with debutants
  • ✓ Billy Loughnane and John & Thady Gosden win 33% together
  • ✓ Billy Loughnane riding well, 21% strike rate in the fortnight
  • ✕ Mostly unraced field — ranking is based on stable/jockey strength, not form. Confidence is genuinely low here
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
BEGUILED ★ Top Rated
J: Billy Loughnane · T: John & Thady Gosden
1.5 ·market 65%
42%
65%
1.5
 -36%
2
JESSICA
J: Hector Crouch · T: Kevin Philippart De Foy
6.0 ·market 17%
22%
17%
6.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +29%
3
LATE NIGHT SHOW
J: Pierre-Louis Jamin · T: K. R. Burke
9.5 ·market 11%
14%
11%
9.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +36%
4
SHOW ME GLORY
J: Callum Hutchinson · T: Andrew Balding
13.0 ·market 8%
12%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +56%
5
WOOLLAHRA
J: George Wood · T: Jack Morland
13.0 ·market 8%
11%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +38%
6
ZIRCONIC
J: Harry Davies · T: Hugo Palmer
23.0 ·market 4%
10%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +129%
7
GIVE ME A BOW
J: Paddy Bradley · T: William Stone
101.0 ·market 1%
8%
1%
101.0
 +709%market disagrees

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org