York 13:50 — Value Analysis

Sky Bet Mile Handicap Stakes (Heritage Handicap)

Friday 21 August 2026

Other Handicap GTS 8.0f Class 2 20 runners
Model's most likely ZENNOR STORM 22% model chance · market 23%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates ZENNOR STORM top (22% chance)
  • ✓ Well suited by today's ground
  • ✓ Ideally fresh - 22 days since its last run
  • ✓ William Haggas readies first-timers, 12% with debutants
  • ✕ Little to like about its run over its last three runs
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
ZENNOR STORM ★ Top Rated
J: Tom Marquand · T: William Haggas
4.3 ·market 23%
22%
23%
4.3
▲ Edge increasing
 -4%
2
BLUE COURVOISIER
J: Rossa Ryan · T: Clive Cox
8.5 ·market 12%
13%
12%
8.5
 +8%
3
EKLLEEM
J: William Buick · T: William Haggas
12.0 ·market 8%
12%
8%
12.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +41%
4
EXCLUSIVE CODE
J: James Doyle · T: Archie Watson
15.0 ·market 7%
11%
7%
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +66%
5
JEDDAAL
J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Ed Walker
13.0 ·market 8%
9%
8%
13.0
 +16%
6
OUTBACK HEAT
J: Kaiya Fraser · T: Harry Eustace
12.0 ·market 8%
9%
8%
12.0
 +3%
7
BEARISH
J: Oisin Murphy · T: Ed Dunlop
8.0 ·market 12%
6%
12%
8.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -55%
8
INTENSE VISION
J: Silvestre De Sousa · T: Oli Rix
9.0 ·market 11%
5%
11%
9.0
 -54%
9
IRONWILL
J: Marco Ghiani · T: Stuart Williams
29.0 ·market 3%
4%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +27%
10
KRASIMIR
J: Colin Keane · T: G M Lyons
21.0 ·market 5%
4%
5%
21.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -23%
11
LE SAMOURAI
J: Edward Greatrex · T: Ralph Beckett
17.0 ·market 6%
4%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -38%
12
STORMING POINT
J: Rob Hornby · T: Gary & Josh Moore
11.0 ·market 9%
3%
9%
11.0
 -65%
13
ST ANTON
J: Pat Dobbs · T: Richard Hannon
29.0 ·market 3%
3%
3%
29.0
 -12%
14
START ME UP
J: Saffie Osborne · T: Richard Spencer
23.0 ·market 4%
3%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -34%
15
ASTRAZAR
J: Ashley Lewis(3) · T: Ed Walker
34.0 ·market 3%
2%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -33%
16
COMMAND THE STARS
J: Darragh Keenan · T: George Scott
51.0 ·market 2%
2%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -9%
—
LION OF ALBA NR
J: David Probert · T: Hugo Palmer
34.0 ·market 3%
2%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -46% Withdrawn
17
DAYDREAMA
J: James Sullivan · T: Tim Easterby
23.0 ·market 4%
2%
4%
23.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -65%
18
NOELAN STAR
J: Daniel Tudhope · T: Edward Bethell
34.0 ·market 3%
1%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -51%
19
WELBURY
J: Oisin Orr · T: Edward Bethell
23.0 ·market 4%
1%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -72%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

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