Curragh 13:05 — Value Analysis

Coolmore Stud St Mark's Basilica Irish EBF Maiden

Saturday 22 August 2026

Maiden GD 7.0f Class 0 16 runners
Model's most likely IVEAGH HOUSE 12% model chance · market 18%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: MONOGRAM is the market favourite (1.9) but the model rates it only 11% vs the market's 52% — it may be beatable.

Why the model rates IVEAGH HOUSE top (12% chance)
  • ✓ Unraced - yard wins 13% with its first-time-out runners
  • ✕ Mostly unraced field — ranking is based on stable/jockey strength, not form. Confidence is genuinely low here
  • ✕ No form to judge - genuine unknown

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
IVEAGH HOUSE ★ Top Rated
J: Wayne Lordan · T: A P O'Brien
5.5 ·market 18%
12%
18%
5.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -35%
2
MONOGRAM
J: Dylan Browne McMonagle · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien
1.9 ·market 52%
11%
52%
1.9
▼ Edge decreasing
 -80%
3
NOBLE EXHIBIT
J: Jack Cleary(5) · T: A P O'Brien
8.5 ·market 12%
10%
12%
8.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -19%
4
AR SON NA CUISE
J: Declan McDonogh · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien
51.0 ·market 2%
9%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +337%market disagrees
5
MALEO MATTEO
J: Chris Hayes · T: D K Weld
9.2 ·market 11%
8%
11%
9.2
 -29%
6
SALT LAKE
J: Leigh Roche · T: Robson De Aguiar
15.0 ·market 7%
7%
7%
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +3%
7
THUMAMA GLORY
J: Adam Caffrey · T: Adrian McGuinness
101.0 ·market 1%
6%
1%
101.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +518%market disagrees
8
HERALDS MARCH
J: James Ryan · T: G M Lyons
41.0 ·market 2%
5%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +124%
9
TIMUCUA GOLD
J: W J Lee · T: Noel Meade
67.0 ·market 1%
5%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +226%
10
KNOCKCURRA DREAM
J: Wesley Joyce(3) · T: Donal Commins
101.0 ·market 1%
4%
1%
101.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +338%market disagrees
11
HAZARAF
J: Ben Coen · T: J P Murtagh
8.5 ·market 12%
4%
12%
8.5
 -67%
12
SELOSSE
J: Shane Foley · T: Mrs John Harrington
11.0 ·market 9%
3%
9%
11.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -62%
13
KOKOSHANELLE
J: Robbie Colgan · T: Ms Sheila Lavery
101.0 ·market 1%
3%
1%
101.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +209%
14
HAMIDI
J: N G McCullagh · T: J P Murtagh
67.0 ·market 1%
3%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +82%
15
WAR ARTIST
J: Seamie Heffernan · T: J P Murtagh
34.0 ·market 3%
2%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -18%
16
SENAN
J: Jamie Powell · T: J P Murtagh
26.0 ·market 4%
2%
4%
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -44%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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