Killarney 13:25 — Value Analysis

ML Lynch Civil Engineering Ltd. Maiden Hurdle (Div I)

Saturday 22 August 2026

Maiden GD 16.5f Class 0 19 runners
Model's most likely AIRDS MOSS 19% model chance · market 27%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: REACHING HIGH is the market favourite (2.2) but the model rates it only 17% vs the market's 45% — it may be beatable.

Why the model rates AIRDS MOSS top (19% chance)
  • ✓ Ran well over its last three runs
  • ✓ Has run well in better company than today's
  • ✕ David Harry Kelly's yard quiet lately, 8% in the last two months
  • ✕ Mark Walsh cold lately, 9% in the fortnight

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
AIRDS MOSS ★ Top Rated
J: Mark Walsh · T: David Harry Kelly
3.8 ·market 27%
19%
27%
3.8
 -29%
2
REACHING HIGH
J: Danny Mullins · T: W P Mullins
2.2 ·market 45%
17%
45%
2.2
▼ Edge decreasing
 -63%
3
PENNY EXPRESS
J: Jack Kennedy · T: Gordon Elliott
8.0 ·market 12%
15%
12%
8.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +17%
4
KINGSTONIAN
J: J J Slevin · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien
5.5 ·market 18%
12%
18%
5.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -34%
5
MINELLA HOLLOW
J: Daniel King · T: John J Nallen
10.0 ·market 10%
10%
10%
10.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +4%
6
WELL BUD
J: G B Noonan · T: Eoin Christopher McCarthy
34.0 ·market 3%
9%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +195%
7
MARKET SQUARE
J: Donagh Meyler · T: Emmet Mullins
21.0 ·market 5%
7%
5%
21.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +56%
8
EBEN ZAABEEL
J: Reserve 1 · T: A J Martin
26.0 ·market 4%
5%
4%
26.0
 +27%
9
COLLIERS QUAY
J: Reserve 2 · T: Eoin Christopher McCarthy
34.0 ·market 3%
4%
3%
34.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +35%
10
PAPANELL
J: Eoin Walsh · T: John Joseph Murphy
67.0 ·market 1%
4%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +137%
11
INDIVIDUALISM
J: Calum Hogan(5) · T: E McNamara
41.0 ·market 2%
3%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +20%
12
KILBEG JIMMY
J: Brian Hayes · T: John Queally
29.0 ·market 3%
2%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -44%
13
WINDY GREY
J: Darragh O'Keeffe · T: Paul O'Flynn
201.0 ·market 0%
2%
0%
201.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +285%
14
MAN DOWN
J: Reserve 3 · T: Donncha Duggan
34.0 ·market 3%
2%
3%
34.0
 -41%
15
SEA LIMIT
J: Phillip Enright · T: Eugene M O'Sullivan
126.0 ·market 1%
2%
1%
126.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +115%
16
THE ORPHAN GIRL
J: Ethan O'Sullivan(7) · T: Peter Fahey
201.0 ·market 0%
1%
0%
201.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +149%
17
LOCAL RESIDENT
J: Danny Gilligan · T: Cian Collins
21.0 ·market 5%
1%
5%
21.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -74%
18
MISTY VALENTINE
J: Luke Burke Ott(7) · T: M Winters
201.0 ·market 0%
1%
0%
201.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +110%
19
ROCKSTAR REBEL
J: Mr T O'Connor(7) · T: T O'Connor
201.0 ·market 0%
1%
0%
201.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +89%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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