Newmarket July 13:34 — Value Analysis

Nags Head Cutting British EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Saturday 22 August 2026

Novice Stakes GTF 6.0f Class 4 7 runners
Model's most likely SILENT SADHU 27% model chance · market 6%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: GREAT BALLS OFIRE is the market favourite (2.5) but the model rates it only 15% vs the market's 40% — it may be beatable.

Why the model rates SILENT SADHU top (27% chance)
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✕ Mostly unraced field — ranking is based on stable/jockey strength, not form. Confidence is genuinely low here
  • ✕ Little to like about its run over its last three runs

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
SILENT SADHU ★ Top Rated
J: Paddy Bradley · T: J. R. Jenkins
17.0 ·market 6%
27%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +354%market disagrees
2
GREAT BALLS OFIRE
J: George Wood · T: Richard Spencer
2.5 ·market 40%
15%
40%
2.5
 -64%
3
ONE FOR BRUCE
J: Robert Havlin · T: James Tate
3.5 ·market 29%
14%
29%
3.5
 -51%
4
BLUE FOX
J: David Probert · T: Jack Jones
17.0 ·market 6%
12%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +96%
5
WALKIN ON THE MOON
J: Callum Hutchinson · T: Richard Spencer
4.3 ·market 23%
10%
23%
4.3
 -57%
6
SKY SYMPHONY
J: Silvestre De Sousa · T: Lemos De Souza
13.0 ·market 8%
10%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +25%
7
SCENIC BLUE
J: Stevie Donohoe · T: Dylan Cunha
67.0 ·market 1%
8%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +421%market disagrees

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org