Naas 14:30 — Value Analysis

Irish EBF Median Sires Series Fillies Maiden

Sunday 23 August 2026

Maiden GD 7.0f Class 0 16 runners
Model's most likely SILVER KISS 25% model chance · market 42%
★ Best value MISS TWILIGHT model 16% vs market 11% · +50%
Why the model rates SILVER KISS top (25% chance)

Ran well over his last three starts and arrives ideally fresh off 26 days, Silver Kiss handles the good; form figures yet offer limited promise given his yard remains at the gate.

  • ✓ Ran well over its last three runs
  • ✓ Ideally fresh - 26 days since its last run
  • ✓ Handles the good well
  • ✕ D K Weld's yard quiet lately, 8% in the fortnight
  • ✕ Form figures leave it plenty to find

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
SILVER KISS ★ Top Rated
J: Chris Hayes · T: D K Weld
2.4 ·market 42%
25%
42%
2.4
▼ Edge decreasing
 -40%
2
MAEDA MATSU
J: Rory Cleary · T: Ms Sheila Lavery
5.0 ·market 20%
21%
20%
5.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +4%
3
MISS TWILIGHT
J: Luke McAteer · T: Rory Anthony Devine
9.5 ·market 11%
16%
11%
9.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +50%
4
STAR GLORY
J: Gavin Ryan · T: Noel Meade
10.0 ·market 10%
14%
10%
10.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +43%
5
CHURCHILL BOND
J: W J Lee · T: P Twomey
9.0 ·market 11%
13%
11%
9.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +13%
6
LUNAR EMPRESS
J: Shane Foley · T: Mrs John Harrington
12.0 ·market 8%
10%
8%
12.0
 +22%
7
COASTAL WONDER
J: Rory Mulligan(5) · T: John S O'Donoghue
21.0 ·market 5%
6%
5%
21.0
 +18%
8
GREEN NATURE
J: Declan McDonogh · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien
12.5 ·market 8%
4%
8%
12.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -50%
9
WECOULDAVEHADITALL
J: Nathan Crosse · T: Daniel McLoughlin
67.0 ·market 1%
4%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +159%
10
ESTADO DE LA LUNA
J: Gary Carroll · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien
26.0 ·market 4%
4%
4%
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -7%
11
REYIKA
J: Ben Coen · T: J P Murtagh
17.0 ·market 6%
3%
6%
17.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -52%
12
ARMARONES GIRL
J: Robbie Colgan · T: Cian Hughes
17.0 ·market 6%
3%
6%
17.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -53%
13
AUTUMN GRAY
J: Jamie Powell · T: Eddie & Patrick Harty
34.0 ·market 3%
3%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -13%
14
LUSTED
J: Andrew Slattery · T: Josh Halley
81.0 ·market 1%
2%
1%
81.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +100%
15
PAS DE DEUX
J: Seamie Heffernan · T: J P Murtagh
23.0 ·market 4%
2%
4%
23.0
 -57%
16
ARIZONANEARGALWAY
J: Mel Sheridan(7) · T: Denis Gerard Hogan
201.0 ·market 0%
1%
0%
201.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +182%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org