Brighton 14:20 — Value Analysis

Blackmore Building Contractors Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Stakes

Sunday 23 August 2026

Amateur GD 12.0f Class 6 6 runners
Model's most likely HIGHLAND HARVEY 31% model chance · market 31%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates HIGHLAND HARVEY top (31% chance)
  • ✓ Young improver with scope
  • ✓ Gihan Arnolda's yard in form, 16% winners in the last two months
  • ✓ Ran well two runs back
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
HIGHLAND HARVEY ★ Top Rated
J: Mr Liam McGaffin(5) · T: Gihan Arnolda
3.2 ·market 31%
31%
31%
3.2
 -1%
2
SEA OF CHARM
J: Mr Henry Main(3) · T: Georgina Nicholls
4.0 ·market 25%
20%
25%
4.0
 -20%
3
STINTINO SUNSET
J: Mr Ross Birkett · T: Julia & Shelley Birkett
5.0 ·market 20%
19%
20%
5.0
 -4%
4
LITTLE SHE
J: Miss Alice Tregoning(5) · T: Marcus Tregoning
7.5 ·market 13%
12%
13%
7.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -10%
5
WRIST ART
J: Miss Ruby Criscuolo(5) · T: James Owen
6.0 ·market 17%
11%
17%
6.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -35%
6
THE PUG
J: Mr Josh Myers(7) · T: Olly Murphy
15.0 ·market 7%
9%
7%
15.0
 +28%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

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