Musselburgh 14:15 — Value Analysis
Irish EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)
Monday 24 August 2026
Jason Hart's 15% strike rate in the last two months and 7lb better treatment than Calef strengthen THE MEAN FIDDLER's case; form figures are sparse and it carries the lowest official mark, but dropping into weaker company works in its favour.
- ✓ Preferred to Calef, 7lb better in at the weights
- ✓ Jason Hart riding well, 15% strike rate in the last two months
- ✕ Form figures leave it plenty to find
- ✕ Official mark among the lowest in the race
Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Avg Price | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
THE MEAN FIDDLER
★ Top Rated
1.3
·market 75%
|
34% |
75% |
1.3
|
-54% | |
| 2 |
CALEF
5.0
·market 20%
|
17% |
20% |
5.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
-15% | |
| 3 |
BY JOVE GRACE
12.0
·market 8%
|
10% |
8% |
12.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+24% | |
| 4 |
CLASSYFIED
23.0
·market 4%
|
10% |
4% |
23.0
|
+120% | |
| 5 |
LA FLOR GRANADA
51.0
·market 2%
|
6% |
2% |
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+225% | |
| 6 |
PAPHOS
9.5
·market 11%
|
5% |
11% |
9.5
▲ Edge increasing
|
-52% | |
| 7 |
PIVOTAL STAR
67.0
·market 1%
|
5% |
1% |
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+237% | |
| 8 |
SABLE NOIR
51.0
·market 2%
|
5% |
2% |
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+130% |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →
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