Brighton 14:30 — Value Analysis
Blackmore Building Contractors Handicap Stakes
Monday 24 August 2026
NOGOS DREAM was placed second last time and is well-treated by the handicapper; stepping up beyond its demonstrated level is a concern, and the good to firm ground poses a question mark, yet the 32-day freshness helps here.
- ✓ Well treated on official ratings
- ✓ Ran well last time, finished 2nd
- ✓ Was well-in against its last field on ratings
- ✕ Stepping up beyond the level it has shown
- ✕ The good to firm is a question mark for it
Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Avg Price | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
NOGOS DREAM
★ Top Rated
4.3
·market 23%
|
34% |
23% |
4.3
▲ Edge increasing
|
+47% | |
| 2 |
SOUTH SHORE
3.8
·market 27%
|
25% |
27% |
3.8
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-6% | |
| 3 |
SECRET HANDSHEIKH
7.0
·market 14%
|
16% |
14% |
7.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+11% | |
| 4 |
EM FOUR
4.0
·market 25%
|
14% |
25% |
4.0
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-44% | |
| 5 |
MERRIMACK
7.0
·market 14%
|
9% |
14% |
7.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
-36% | |
| 6 |
KENTO
9.5
·market 11%
|
9% |
11% |
9.5
▲ Edge increasing
|
-14% |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org