Musselburgh 14:45 — Value Analysis
National Racehorse Week Nursery Handicap Stakes
Monday 24 August 2026
FOREST BERRY won last time and boasts a strong record at this class; the 7-day turnaround poses a slight question mark, it carries a relatively low official mark despite its success, yet the trip at 1m suits it well.
- ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
- ✓ Ran well last time, finished 1st
- ✓ Bang on trip for it at 1m
- ✕ Quick 7-day turnaround - a question mark
- ✕ Official mark among the lowest in the race
Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Avg Price | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
FOREST BERRY
★ Top Rated
1.7
·market 60%
|
32% |
60% |
1.7
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-46% | |
| 2 |
BLUESTONE LADY
5.5
·market 18%
|
20% |
18% |
5.5
▲ Edge increasing
|
+8% | |
| 3 |
ASTRAL CALLING
7.0
·market 14%
|
13% |
14% |
7.0
|
-10% | |
| 4 |
RULE OF THE AGENCY
19.0
·market 5%
|
12% |
5% |
19.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+129% | |
| 5 |
THE RESDEV ROCKET
15.0
·market 7%
|
11% |
7% |
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+72% | |
| 6 |
BONJOUR BELLE
21.0
·market 5%
|
8% |
5% |
21.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+76% | |
| 7 |
LE GRAND ETOILE
19.0
·market 5%
|
7% |
5% |
19.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+41% |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org