Musselburgh 14:15 — Value Analysis

EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)

Tuesday 25 August 2026

Maiden GD 7.0f Class 4 10 runners
Model's most likely SWEET IRIS 26% model chance · market 14%
★ Best value SWEET IRIS model 26% vs market 14% · +79%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: VEGASMILE is the market favourite (1.8) but the model rates it only 7% vs the market's 55% — it may be beatable.

Why the model rates SWEET IRIS top (26% chance)

Sweet Iris eases in grade after racing at stronger levels, while Oisin Orr's 18% strike rate in the last two months is a plus; yet her official mark among the lowest and form figures leave considerable ground to recover.

  • ✓ Preferred to Inns And Out, 7lb better in at the weights
  • ✓ Oisin Orr riding well, 18% strike rate in the last two months
  • ✓ Has been racing at a higher level than this lately
  • ✕ Official mark among the lowest in the race
  • ✕ Form figures leave it plenty to find

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
SWEET IRIS ★ Top Rated
J: Oisin Orr · T: Richard & Peter Fahey
7.0 ·market 14%
26%
14%
7.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +79%
2
INNS AND OUT
J: Jason Hart · T: Tim Easterby
6.5 ·market 15%
16%
15%
6.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 +3%
3
BASMAAH
J: Andrew Mullen · T: Ben Haslam
29.0 ·market 3%
8%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +126%
4
VEGASMILE
J: Clifford Lee · T: K. R. Burke
1.8 ·market 55%
7%
55%
1.8
 -87%
5
COUL BLUE
J: Connor Beasley · T: Michael Dods
41.0 ·market 2%
6%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +163%
6
DIPLOMACY
J: Billy Garritty · T: Michael & David Easterby
41.0 ·market 2%
6%
2%
41.0
 +139%
7
THREEOCLOCKFLYER
J: Joanna Mason · T: Michael & David Easterby
41.0 ·market 2%
5%
2%
41.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +100%
8
GORDONS GIRL
J: Daniel Tudhope · T: David O'Meara
5.5 ·market 18%
5%
18%
5.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -74%
9
WILD ORCHID
J: Sam James · T: Charlie Johnston
11.0 ·market 9%
4%
9%
11.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -60%
10
PIGEON PETE
J: David Nolan · T: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero
29.0 ·market 3%
3%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -0%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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