Lingfield 14:30 — Value Analysis

Smarter Gambling Starts At gambling.com Apprentice Handicap Stakes

Tuesday 25 August 2026

Other Handicap STD 8.0f Class 5 9 runners
Model's most likely GREAT BLASKET 30% model chance · market 29%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates GREAT BLASKET top (30% chance)

Great Blasket is well treated on the ratings and has won over 1m before, with James Owen's record of 10% when readying first-timers lending confidence; yet unproven at this level and the trip present uncertainties.

  • ✓ Preferred to Dannick, better suited by the trip
  • ✓ Has won over 1m before
  • ✓ Well treated on official ratings
  • ✕ Unproven at this level
  • ✕ Trip is a question mark

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
GREAT BLASKET ★ Top Rated
J: Christian Howarth · T: James Owen
3.5 ·market 29%
30%
29%
3.5
 +5%
2
DANNICK
J: Jude Fernandes(7) · T: Gary & Josh Moore
4.5 ·market 22%
20%
22%
4.5
 -9%
3
HAVANA TOUCH
J: Conor Whiteley(3) · T: John Butler
4.3 ·market 23%
11%
23%
4.3
 -50%
4
THAPA VC
J: Toby Moore(5) · T: Mark Rimell
8.0 ·market 12%
10%
12%
8.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -23%
5
AMUSED
J: Donagh Murphy(5) · T: Jim Boyle
5.5 ·market 18%
8%
18%
5.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -55%
6
MAJESTIC WAVE
J: Mason Paetel · T: Simon Dow
17.0 ·market 6%
7%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +19%
7
ERNIES VALENTINE
J: Alfie Redman(7) · T: Ross Burdon
17.0 ·market 6%
6%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +0%
8
RENESMEE
J: Kyle McHugh(5) · T: Michael Keady
26.0 ·market 4%
5%
4%
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +37%
9
NEZEEH
J: Olivia Tubb(3) · T: Jim & Suzi Best
67.0 ·market 1%
4%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +174%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org