Musselburgh 14:45 — Value Analysis
National Racehorse Week Nursery Handicap Stakes
Tuesday 25 August 2026
Spectacular Diver's placing two runs back and Hart's 16% strike in the last two months strengthen the case, while just 13 days since his last run suggests sharpness; yet the yard runs at 7% in the last two months.
- ✓ Ran well two runs back
- ✓ Jason Hart riding well, 16% strike rate in the last two months
- ✓ Race-fit - out just 13 days ago
- ✕ Tim Easterby's yard quiet lately, 7% in the last two months
- ✕ Trip is a question mark
Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Avg Price | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
SPECTACULAR DIVER
★ Top Rated
5.5
·market 18%
|
29% |
18% |
5.5
▲ Edge increasing
|
+57% | |
| 2 |
LAURALYNN
3.0
·market 33%
|
17% |
33% |
3.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
-50% | |
| 3 |
AODHAN
6.0
·market 17%
|
16% |
17% |
6.0
|
-4% | |
| 4 |
NEEDIN U
4.3
·market 23%
|
13% |
23% |
4.3
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-42% | |
| 5 |
MARDY BUM
13.0
·market 8%
|
9% |
8% |
13.0
|
+15% | |
| 6 |
SAVOY BLUE
23.0
·market 4%
|
8% |
4% |
23.0
▼ Edge decreasing
|
+77% | |
| 7 |
STAY ON TAB
9.0
·market 11%
|
7% |
11% |
9.0
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-34% | |
| 8 |
BEA KINDLY
26.0
·market 4%
|
5% |
4% |
26.0
▼ Edge decreasing
|
+32% |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org